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Mounting apprehensions exist over the potential of warfare involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a heated war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in the previous year that his nation's access to the sea was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and hinted at the intention to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

Despite persistent challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to short statements on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a approach of retaking previous domains.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that moves to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Ground

There have been little evidence of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The head of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, stated recently in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Origins of the Tension

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this arrangement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict followed, finishing with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then endorsed by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries continued at odds.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the war was finished – a decision that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

Yet ties have subsequently deteriorated again.